2025: Economic Growth Masks Deepening Divide for Citizens

By Newton Mambande

HARARE – As Zimbabwe closes the books on 2025, the nation’s economic performance paints a starkly divided picture. Officially, the country has emerged as the fifth-largest economy in the SADC region, surpassing nations like Zambia and Mozambique and ranking 16th continentally. This macroeconomic growth is largely attributed to a robust agricultural sector—with wheat production hitting 600,000 tonnes—and a thriving mining industry buoyed by artisanal gold miners.

However, this top-line success story remains disconnected from the daily reality for most Zimbabweans. Extreme poverty and entrenched inequality persist, making the country’s statistical progress feel abstract and out of reach. Institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continue to highlight concerns over poverty and development, stressing the urgent need for greater transparency and accountability.

The ZiG’s Stability: A Tentative Bright Spot

A notable positive development has been the relative stability of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency, which has helped curb inflation. Annual inflation measured in ZiG fell sharply to 32.7% in October from 82.7% in September, with projections suggesting a further decline to between 15% and 20% by year’s end. Analysts credit the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s tight monetary policy and sustained high global gold prices for this respite.

Challenges on the Horizon for 2026

Looking ahead, significant headwinds loom. Economists warn that a flawed taxation system and a planned increase in the civil service wage bill could fuel renewed inflationary pressures, even if they offer temporary relief to government workers. The 2026 budget presented by Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube in late November has sparked concerns over its potential to trigger another inflationary spiral, with the poor likely bearing the heaviest burden through eroded purchasing power and underfunded public health services.

A Political Economy Rooted in Extraction

At its core, Zimbabwe’s growth model remains heavily dependent on extractive industries—mining and commercial agriculture. While this drives GDP figures, it has failed to catalyze broad-based poverty reduction. The nation’s enduring economic challenges are deeply intertwined with governance issues, systemic corruption, and a lack of institutional accountability.

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For sustainable and inclusive development, experts argue Zimbabwe must diversify its economic base and decisively address these structural flaws. Prioritizing investment in human capital, critical infrastructure, and equitable social services is essential to ensure growth benefits the majority.

The Unfinished Agenda

Critical issues continue to demand attention:

• Inequality: Economic gains remain concentrated among a wealthy elite, with income disparity worsening.
• Unemployment: Persistently high joblessness, particularly among youth, poses a threat to social stability.
• Climate Vulnerability: The economy remains highly exposed to climate shocks, which could swiftly undo hard-won progress.

The Verdict

Zimbabwe ends 2025 as an economy of contradictions: celebrating regional ranking achievements while grappling with a crisis of livelihoods for its people. As it moves into 2026, the fundamental test will be whether it can bridge the gap between macroeconomic statistics and the welfare of its citizens through policies that prioritize inclusive and sustainable development.

About the Author:
Newton Mambande is an entrepreneur and researcher. He can be reached at newtonmunod@gmail.com. Cell: +263773411103.