Can AfCFTA Achieve Its Economic Agenda?

By Newton Mambande

HARARE – THE African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has the potential to become the world’s largest trading bloc. However, significant challenges—including peace and security, democracy, and human rights—must be addressed decisively.

Unfortunately, due to a multitude of social, economic, and political factors, it will be difficult for the African Union (AU) to realize this economic bloc in the present and future generations.

First and foremost, a solid foundation of good governance is essential. Countries like Zimbabwe and Nigeria must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against corruption. Property rights must also be respected, meaning lawlessness and anti-development practices must be eradicated. Without these fundamentals, establishing a formidable African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will remain an elusive goal.

Let me put it this way: Africa needs a unified political ideology rooted in Pan-Africanism. Currently, the continent is a contested terrain of economic philosophies. Africa is embroiled in a “Second Cold War,” where hybrid regimes and military dictatorships—such as Burkina Faso and Zimbabwe—align with the realist bloc (formerly the communist world), led by Russia and China. Meanwhile, countries like Kenya, Zambia, and Nigeria belong to the capitalist bloc, led by the United States and Western Europe. Some states remain apolitical, refusing to align with either side. This division makes it difficult to establish a cohesive AfCFTA without shared political and economic principles.

The AfCFTA can achieve its goal of a single unified market to promote African economic integration. One critical step would be adopting a single currency, taking a cue from the European Union (EU), which uses the euro for domestic and international transactions.

Today, Europe is borderless. EU citizens enjoy visa-free movement, allowing seamless travel from Madrid to Munich. Moreover, they can migrate freely within the bloc as long as they are citizens or residents. Tourists entering the EU only need to declare their passports at a single port of entry, after which they can conduct business across the continent. The AfCFTA should draw lessons from the EU’s trade policy framework.

To achieve this, Africa must prioritize peace and security. Terrorism in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Sahel region, Nigeria, and Mozambique must be addressed. Governments in these countries must engage rebel and terrorist groups—such as Boko Haram, M23, and jihadist factions—in negotiations, taking their demands seriously. If Africa fails to engage these groups, the AfCFTA will struggle to achieve its goals of economic integration, investment promotion, and continental trade. Stable economies and democracies like Botswana, Zambia, and Ghana may hesitate to support African unification under AfCFTA unless these issues are resolved.

Additionally, Africa must invest in infrastructure development. Many regional markets remain inaccessible due to inefficient transport systems and poor communication networks. Energy and power shortages further hinder industrialization. Trade policies, including customs and duties, must also be reviewed and enforced uniformly across member states in line with ratified agreements.

The AfCFTA should establish a legislative assembly and independent regulatory agencies, separate from individual state systems, much like the EU or the United States.

Why should the AfCFTA be supported? The economic benefits are vast: youth empowerment, employment opportunities for women and young people, and poverty alleviation. It can also stimulate economic growth, particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

Moreover, the AfCFTA could enhance Africa’s global competitiveness, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and increasing participation in global trade. By fostering regional value chains, Africa can specialize in key industries, reducing dependency on imports and transitioning from a consumptive to a productive economy.

Africa can succeed—provided it heeds expert advice on trade policies and tariffs. Conducive conditions for good governance, peace, and security must be upheld, and ratified agreements must be enforced. The AfCFTA must also prioritize infrastructure investment to drive industrialization. By establishing strong, independent institutions akin to the European Union, the AfCFTA can lay the groundwork for a prosperous, integrated Africa.