By ETimes
HARARE – ZIMBABWE’S mineral export earnings are projected to hit US$3.5 billion in 2026, driven by firmer global commodity prices, tighter supply conditions and improved beneficiation, according to the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ).
The outlook follows a strong full year 2025 (FY2025) performance, in which cumulative mineral sales reached US$3.4 billion, exceeding budget targets and reinforcing the mining sector’s central role in the economy.
MMCZ says the 2026 revenue target will be underpinned by a recovery in platinum group metals (PGMs), a rebalancing lithium market, firm coal and ferro-alloy prices, and selective strength in diamonds, particularly larger stones.
PGMs are expected to remain Zimbabwe’s single most important revenue contributor in 2026, supported by structural supply constraints and expanding demand from hydrogen energy systems, industrial applications and jewellery.
Global market forecasts point to a price recovery across the PGM basket. Platinum is projected to average between US$1 050 and US$1 150 per ounce in 2026, up from 2025 levels, while palladium is expected to stabilise in the US$1 100–US$1 250 per ounce range.
Rhodium prices, though volatile, are forecast to remain elevated relative to historical norms due to persistent supply tightness.
In FY2025, MMCZ recorded a significant shift from concentrate exports to PGM matte, reflecting growing downstream beneficiation. Matte exports generated US$1,5 billion, a 71 percent increase in value compared to FY2024, despite broadly stable volumes.
Mining engineer Chido Mavhunga said the transition was strategically important.
“Zimbabwe is now capturing more value per tonne exported. Matte production cushions producers from volume volatility and aligns with global smelter demand, which remains strong going into 2026,” Mavhunga said.
She added that tightening supply from South Africa, coupled with delayed mine expansions globally, was likely to support prices over the medium term.
After a sharp correction in 2024 and early 2025, the lithium market is expected to rebalance in 2026, driven by rising electric vehicle penetration and growth in stationary energy storage systems.
Consensus forecasts indicate lithium carbonate prices recovering into a US$15 000–US$18 000 per tonne range in 2026, compared to depressed levels seen in parts of 2025.
MMCZ reported lithium sales of 1.52 million tonnes valued at US$571.6 million in FY2025, exceeding targets on both volume and revenue.
Economic analyst Gladys Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi said Zimbabwe was well-positioned to benefit from the recovery, provided policy consistency was maintained.
“The global energy transition remains intact. What we are seeing is a cyclical correction rather than a structural decline. For Zimbabwe, scale and cost discipline will be critical in translating higher prices into sustainable export earnings,” she said.
Coal, coke and metallurgical coal markets are projected to remain firm through 2027, supported by ongoing infrastructure development and resilient global steel production, particularly in Asia and parts of the Middle East.
Ferro-alloys, including high carbon ferrochrome, are also expected to benefit from steady stainless steel demand.
In FY2025, MMCZ recorded US$372 million in ferro-alloy sales, an 11 percent increase in value year-on-year.
Chrome concentrates, while facing price pressure in 2025, are expected to stabilise in 2026 as Chinese demand improves and higher-cost producers exit the market.
Steel exports showed the sharpest rebound, with FY2025 sales jumping to US$92.1 million, reflecting improved domestic capacity utilisation and regional demand.
The diamond market outlook remains uneven. MMCZ notes strong demand for large, high-quality stones, while smaller goods continue to face pricing pressure due to synthetic alternatives and inventory overhangs.
While overall diamond prices are expected to remain range-bound in 2026, niche segments are forecast to perform better, offering selective upside.
Commenting on FY2025 performance, MMCZ General Manager Nomusa Jane Moyo said improved prices, operational efficiencies and systems upgrades had driven the strong outcome, though challenges remained.
“Value growth was partially constrained by lower rough diamond volumes and competitive pressures in the coke market, which required strategic pricing adjustments,” she said.
With mineral exports having surged 14 percent in value year-on-year, MMCZ believes the sector has built a solid platform for 2026.
Analysts caution, however, that global price volatility, energy costs and logistics efficiency will remain key variables.
“Execution will matter as much as prices,” Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi said.
“If beneficiation, infrastructure and policy alignment continue improving, the US$3.5 billion target is achievable.”
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