Duty-Free Access to China: Can It Also Drive Zim’s Industrialisation?

By Newton M. Mambande

HARARE – FROM 1 May 2026 to 2028, Zimbabwe is expected to enter a new phase of trade engagement with China through a proposed arrangement that would provide duty-free access for selected Zimbabwean primary commodities entering the Chinese market. On the surface, this appears to be a significant opportunity to expand exports and improve foreign currency earnings. However, an equally important question is whether the arrangement will also strengthen Zimbabwe’s long-term industrialisation agenda.

This article is not a criticism of China. China remains one of Zimbabwe’s most important economic partners in infrastructure development, investment and trade. Rather, it is an examination of how Zimbabwe can maximise the benefits of this partnership while advancing Vision 2030, the national aspiration of becoming an upper middle-income economy.

Understanding the Proposed Arrangement

According to the announced proposal, selected Zimbabwean primary commodities—including unprocessed tobacco leaf, raw macadamia nuts, chrome ore, unrefined granite, timber and fresh horticultural products—would receive duty-free access to the Chinese market.

The policy rationale is straightforward. Lower import duties should make Zimbabwean exports more competitive, potentially increasing demand, export volumes and foreign currency inflows. Farmers, miners and exporters could benefit from expanded market access.

These are positive prospects. However, the broader economic impact will depend on how Zimbabwe positions itself within global value chains.

The Importance of Value Addition

International trade increasingly rewards countries that process and manufacture goods rather than export raw materials.

For example, a tonne of chrome ore may generate only a fraction of the value ultimately realised after it is processed into ferrochrome and later manufactured into stainless steel products. Most of the additional value—including industrial employment, engineering expertise, technology transfer and tax revenue—is typically generated where downstream processing takes place.

The same principle applies to agriculture.

Raw macadamia nuts command relatively modest export prices compared with processed kernels that have been graded, roasted, packaged and branded for retail markets. Processing creates employment opportunities, particularly in rural communities, while generating higher export earnings per kilogram.

Tobacco presents another illustration. Zimbabwe has developed a globally respected tobacco sector, yet greater economic value lies further along the production chain through cigarette manufacturing, nicotine extraction and pharmaceutical applications.

Expanded access to export markets therefore offers an opportunity, but long-term national benefits are likely to be greatest if increased exports are accompanied by greater domestic beneficiation and manufacturing.

The Question of Reciprocity

Another important consideration is whether improved market access for Zimbabwe’s raw materials should be matched by greater opportunities for Zimbabwe’s processed products.

Zimbabwe exports a wide range of primary commodities while also importing manufactured goods, including machinery, electronics, textiles and processed consumer products. Although these imports support economic activity and consumer choice, they also highlight Zimbabwe’s continuing reliance on exporting relatively low-value products while importing higher-value manufactured goods.

From an industrial policy perspective, policymakers may wish to explore whether future trade arrangements can also facilitate duty-free or preferential access for Zimbabwean value-added exports such as ferrochrome, processed macadamia kernels, fruit juice concentrates, furniture, engineered timber products and other manufactured goods.

Such an approach would better align trade policy with Zimbabwe’s industrial development objectives.

Industrialisation and Vision 2030

Vision 2030 is not simply about increasing export volumes. Achieving upper middle-income status requires structural transformation of the economy through higher productivity, stronger manufacturing capacity and increased domestic value addition.

Countries that have successfully industrialised have generally progressed from exporting raw materials to exporting processed and manufactured products.

For Zimbabwe, this could mean exporting wet-blue leather instead of raw hides, processed fruit instead of fresh produce, stainless steel products instead of chrome ore, and finished furniture instead of logs.

The investment decisions made between 2026 and 2028 could influence Zimbabwe’s industrial structure for many years. Ensuring that export growth is accompanied by investments in local processing facilities may therefore prove critical.

Policy Options Worth Considering

Several policy options could help Zimbabwe maximise the benefits of expanded access to the Chinese market.

First, policymakers could consider linking duty-free exports of selected raw materials with measurable beneficiation targets or investment commitments that promote domestic processing and skills development.

Second, where economically justified, export levies on selected raw commodities could be structured to encourage local processing while financing industrial development initiatives. Any such revenues would need to be managed transparently and directed towards processing infrastructure, packaging facilities, quality certification and logistics.

Third, Zimbabwe could seek expanded market access for its processed and manufactured exports alongside raw commodities. Improved access for value-added products would support domestic industry while strengthening export earnings.

Fourth, government could continue supporting emerging industries through measures consistent with international trade rules, including standards development, competitiveness programmes and carefully designed industrial policies.

Finally, greater investment in quality standards, branding and product traceability would improve Zimbabwe’s competitiveness in premium export markets. Consumers increasingly value product origin, food safety and sustainability, creating opportunities for Zimbabwean producers that can demonstrate high standards.

Looking Beyond Export Volumes

China represents an important and valuable market for Zimbabwe. Expanding exports is clearly beneficial. The key challenge is ensuring that increased trade also contributes to domestic industrial development.

The long-term success of Zimbabwe’s trade strategy should be measured not only by how much the country exports, but also by how much value it creates within its own economy.

If future exports increasingly consist of processed foods, ferrochrome, engineered timber, furniture, branded agricultural products and other manufactured goods, Zimbabwe will be moving closer to the aspirations of Vision 2030.

If exports remain dominated by unprocessed primary commodities, policymakers may need to reassess whether the country is capturing the full developmental benefits of international trade.

The opportunity presented by expanded access to the Chinese market is significant. The challenge now is to ensure that this opportunity supports not only export growth, but also industrialisation, employment creation and long-term economic transformation.

Newton M. Mambande is an entrepreneur and researcher and the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Ayanda Enterprises (Private) Limited. He has published peer-reviewed research and writes on economic history, agribusiness, public policy and industrialisation. He can be reached at newtonmunod@gmail.com or +263 773 411 103.